Homer's Philosophy on Statistics

"People can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forty percent of all people know that." - Homer Simpson

When Homer said that, he was trying to combat the evidence that the neighborhood watch program he was in charge of was having a negative impact on Springfield. It was obviously meant as a joke. It was a line that was supposed to be vintage Homer stupidity and ignorance. But the more studies I read, the more I realize how accurate it is. People can come up with statistics to prove anything. If they make certain assumptions and ignore certain variables, it's easy for people to design studies that validate whatever they want.

At the end of the article School Resources and Student Achievement, the authors, after analyzing data that positively correlates resources to achievement, make the observation that their data may be seen as "merely confirming the obvious." And honestly, I'm one of those people who thought that. I thought it was clear that school resources have an impact on student achievement, and this study was just confirming that.

However, there are studies out there that contradict this evidence. Several studies done by Eric Hanushek concluded that there was no impact, and statistically, these studies were sound. Those who have since criticized Hanushek's work have noted that flaws in Hanushek's logic or data collection have created conclusions that are not actually true.

We've all heard the notion that "numbers don't lie," but in fact, when put in certain contexts, it's pretty easy to have two (or even more) completely contradictory studies on the same topic. It's a reminder that we shouldn't be swayed simply by numbers. We have to fully understand and question the methodology behind them.